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London Market Update April 26, 2018

London Market

Prime Central London Sales Market Starts to Level Off

Prime Central London (PCL) prices are down (-4.2%) annually to date. Since their peak in Sept 2014 prices have fallen (-16.7%).


Outer London has fared slightly better falling (-3.9%) annualised and since their Sept 2014 peak off by (-6.5%).


Stamp Duty hikes, Brexit and the weakness of Sterling have all been strong negative factors.


A further couple of years of flat growth ahead is forecast by virtually all market commentators.


However the UK still has a severe housing shortage of over 100,000 homes a year, so when conditions are right there should be very good investment and development opportunities ahead.


Look to Outer London for the future.


London Rents Fall Less


PCL Rents fell slightly Q1:2018 down (-1.5%). This is a slower annual decline than in previous months such as in Nov 2016 where a (-5%) fall took place. The decline has been slowing since.


The scaling back of Buy-To-Let tax relief has severely impacted the residential investment market with the result that the previous “over supply” is being slowly absorbed. At the same time “Generation Rent” continue to face affordability issues in the Capital and look further afield for cheaper and commutable locations.


Brexit has slowed down the take up by professional and financial sector tenants who are usually the main driver for PCL rentals in the Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea and prime Westminster (Knightsbridge, Mayfair).